Article1979

A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births

55 citations0/0 files storedDemography

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.

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References

1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1971Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control.1969The Combination of Forecasts 2000Forecasting Economic Time Series 1975Analysis and control of dynamic economic systems 1977Forecasting Economic Time Series 1974Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models 1978Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, Not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England

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1992Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach 1981Modeling Demographic Relationships: An Analysis of Forecast Functions for Australian Births 1989Multivariate Time Series Projections of Parameterized Age-Specific Fertility Rates 1980On the Demography of Aging 1995Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions 1983Arima models of seasonal variation in U. S. birth and death rates

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