Articlegreen1995

Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions

31 citations0/0 files storedMathematical Population Studies

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

"More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

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References

1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 1981The Limits of Population Forecasting 1983The Accuracy of Population Projections 1989Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach 1992Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality 1990Stochastic methods in population forecasting 1993Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level 1986Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches

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2007Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models 2003Perspectives on mortality forecasting 2019Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting 1995Simplicity and complexity in extrapolatwe population forecasting models 2002Long‐Range Population Projections Made Simple 2019Erroneous Population Forecasts

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