Reliability-based design model applied to mechanistic empirical pavement design

Abstract

Most state highway agencies are being encouraged to change their pavement design procedures from the empirical-based procedure such as the AASHTO to mechanistic-empirical (M-E). Several issues need to be resolved before implementing M-E pavement design procedure in practice. One of the issues is that the design procedure should provide a consistent pavement performance level considering inherent variability associated with design input parameters and systematic bias of the design procedure itself. For a complete M-E pavement design procedure, the effects of input variability and model bias on predicted pavement performance must be quantified and considered. Some of the key principles for applying the reliability concept to M-E pavement design are presented in this paper. In particular, the selection of an appropriate reliability assessment technique and careful characterization of design input variability were considered because of their central role in calculating the reliability of pavement performance and determining the reliability-based safety factor of the pavement design procedure. In this paper, a reliability analysis model for evaluating uncertainties of existing M-E flexible pavement design procedures and a reliability-based pavement design approach using Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) format are addressed.

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