Forecasting versus Envisioning:A New Window on the Future

Abstract

In this essay I examine the ways in which the future has evolved from sweeping vision to technocratic projection. I argue that despite the centrality of a focus on the future in all of planning, forecasting alone is an inadequate and unsatisfying way to arrive at a concept of the future that can truly guide planning. In fact, projections of future needs and costs have become instruments by which powerful interests justify their efforts to impose their projects on the populace. I close by arguing that modern forecasting methods nevertheless can be used to explore alternative futures and the planning policies that they imply or suggest. In that way, forecasting can actually become a central part of collaborative planning.

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