A GROWTH ALLOCATION MODEL FOR THE EOSTON REGION

Abstract

The model described in this article is based on extremely simple concepts and represents the first case of a complete model covering all aspects of urban location. Basically, the future growth of each of a number of activities in a number of subareas of the Boston Metropolitan Region is projected in short steps, with each step depending upon the results of previous steps. Thus, in concept the development of each activity in each subarea influences future development by way of competition for land and changed accessibilities. The initial analysis used in establishing the parameters for the model is based on multiple correlation, and shows extremely close correspondence between the estimates generated by the model and actual historical events. When the model is used as a projection device, it is particularly interesting to note that current trends do not continue, but are changed by later events. The decline of the center city is checked, as is the rate of growth of the inner suburban ring. This model is particularly flexible in that it can accommodate the influences of a very large number of variables. It may be contrasted with the Pittsburgh model as discussed in Steger's article in that it contains very little explicit analysis of locational behavior and depends primarily on a blanket interpretation of past events.

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