TECHNIQUE FOR RELATING TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS

Abstract

A LAND-USE FORECASTING MODEL IS DESCRIBED WHICH EMBODIES DESIRABLE FEATURES NOT HERETOFORE AVAILABLE FOR USE IN PLANNING TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES. ATTENTION IS FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE INFORMATION WHICH THE CALIBRATION OF THE EMPIRIC MODEL REVEALS ON THE RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE EFFECT OF TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNITY FACILITY IMPROVEMENTS ON LAND DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS. SECONDARY ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON SOME RECENT RESULTS OF PRODUCTION FORECASTS WITH THE MODEL. THE (PRODUCTION) EMPIRIC MODEL HAS BEEN STRUCTURED AND THE EQUATIONS ESTIMATED, FOR THREE DATA SETS INVOLVING TWO DIFFERENT URBAN REGIONS. PRODUCTION FORECASTS WERE CARRIED OUT FOR THE TWO DIFFERENT URBAN REGIONS FOR WHICH THE MODEL WAS CALIBRATED. DESCRIBED ARE: (1) THE FORMULATION OF THE EMPIRIC MODEL, (2) THE ESTIMATION OF COEFFICIENTS FOR THE EQUATIONS COMPRISING THE MODEL, (3) GENERALIZED EQUATIONS REFLECTING KNOWLEDGE GAINED TO DATE WITH THE MODEL ON THE FORCES UNDERLYING URBAN DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS, AND (4) SOME RESULTS OF FORECASTING WITH THE EMPIRIC MODEL.

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