Articlegreen2012

Identifying and Acting on Early Warning Signs in Complex Projects

Terry Williams · Ole Jonny Klakegg · Derek H.T. Walker · Bjørn Sørskot Andersen · Ole Morten Magnussen

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Construction Project Management and Performance Capital Investment and Risk Analysis Organizational Change and Leadership

Abstract

We consider identification of early warning signs (EWS) in projects. Project professionals are not good at detecting or acting on EWS. Barriers that lead to this are identified. The nature of EWS and their detection change with the evolving situation. Project assessments, typically part of gateways, are useful in identifying EWS connected to the formalities of the project. As complexity increases, assessments have more limited use, and the project is increasingly dependent on detecting EWS by informal “gut feeling.” Thus, knowledge, experience, and communication skills are increasingly important in complex situations. We conclude with a list of early warning signs.

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References

2003Megaprojects and Risk 2002Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?1975Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals 1996The concept of project complexity—a review 1991La ventaja competitiva de las naciones 1999An integrated framework for project portfolio selection 1998Sensemaking in Organizations.1988Ethical Theory and Business

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