A Hazard Rate Approach to the Timing of Births

Abstract

"This paper discusses two approaches that economists have taken in analyzing the timing of births. It formulates an empirical model appropriate for one of these approaches and demonstrates its usefulness using household survey data from Costa Rica. The hazard rate technique employed in this paper is a natural way of modeling a broad class of problems where the occurrence of an event is uncertain." The study also indicates that "historical data can be used to determine whether the strong trend in the relationship between regional mortality levels and the age at first birth is real or the result of inappropriate data. Additionally, data from other countries might be employed to determine whether the significant effect of male education levels on the risk of subsequent births is a general result. Finally..., the predictions of theoretical models dealing with the number and pace of births can be tested using data from younger women."

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