THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ON TRADE

David G. Mayes

109 citations0/0 files storedJCMS Journal of Common Market Studies

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Global trade and economics Historical Economic and Social Studies European Union Policy and Governance

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article provides a critical analysis of the models and methods which have been used to estimate the effects of economic integration on trade and suggests the most fruitful lines of further development. Both the problem of the examination of the effects of past events and problems in the prediction of future changes are tackled. In particular the drawbacks of the method of estimation of the effects of previous integration as a residual from models which explain what would have happened had the integration not taken place are shown. It is concluded that the most fruitful avenue of approach lies in the estimation of models which provide an economic explanation of trade flows and their changes, and can hence be used for both the explanation of the effects of previous integration and the prediction of future events.

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References

1969Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade 1969Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations 1950Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trade 1957The Theory of Customs Unions: Trade Diversion and Welfare 1967Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market 1962The Theory of Economic Integration 1974Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market: An appraisal of the evidence 1972Recent Developments in Customs Union Theory: An Interpretive Survey

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2000The European Union: Economics and Policies 2014Agri‐Food Export Competitiveness in European Union Countries 1987Britain in Europe: a Survey of Quantitative Trade Studies*1987Intra‐Industry Trade, Intra‐Firm Trade and European Integration: Evidence, Gains and Policy Aspects 1984BRITISH IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES AND THE COMMON MARKET *1986The Effects of Trade Preferences for Developing Countries

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