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Prediction market accuracy in the long run
11 references·16 citing·43 second hop
Prediction market accuracy in the long run (2008)Prediction market accuracy in the long runHandbook of Experimental Economic Results (2008)Handbook of Experimental Econ…Prediction Markets (2004)Prediction MarketsWishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets (1999)Wishes, expectations and acti…The Use of Knowledge in Society (1996)The Use of Knowledge in Socie…The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy (1996)The Fed funds futures rate as…Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable? (1993)Why Are American Presidential…Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market (1992)Anatomy of an Experimental Po…The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President (1978)The Effect of Economic Events…A Treatise on Money (1971)A Treatise on MoneyBandwagon and Underdog Effects and the Possibility of Election Predictions (1954)Bandwagon and Underdog Effect…Value and Capital (1939)Value and CapitalOpen Strategy (2021)Open StrategyAn Experimental Analysis of Information Acquisition in Prediction Markets (2015)An Experimental Analysis of I…The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter? (2014)The impact of political major…Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster (2014)Foresight support systems to …Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (2013)Shall We Vote on Values, But …Combining forecasts: An application to elections (2013)Combining forecasts: An appli…U.S. Presidential Elections and Implied Volatility: The Role of Political Uncertainty (2012)U.S. Presidential Elections a…Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (2012)Improving Predictions using E…Decoding Social Influence and the Wisdom of the Crowd in Financial Trading Network (2012)Decoding Social Influence and…Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections (2012)Accuracy of Vote Expectation …MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETS (2011)MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS B…Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions Versus Expectations (2011)Forecasting Elections: Voter …Prediction accuracy of different market structures — bookmakers versus a betting exchange (2010)Prediction accuracy of differ…Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda (2010)Group-based judgmental foreca…Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task (2010)Comparing face-to-face meetin…A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design (2009)A unified framework for dynam…The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes (1977)Social Judgment: Assimilation and Contrast Effects in Communication and Attitude Change (1981)Information, trade and common knowledge (1982)Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets (2006)Experimental auctions methods and applications in economic and marketing research (2007)Stock market volatility around national elections (2008)Psychology and Economics (1997)Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem (2002)Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting (2003)Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? (2004)An Economic Theory of Democracy (1960)Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964 (1971)Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies (2005)Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy (2009)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)The Reasoning Voter (1991)The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results (2008)Learning and Opinion Change, Not Priming: Reconsidering the Priming Hypothesis (2009)The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments (2017)The Political Business Cycle (1975)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns (2006)The interactive relationship between the US economic policy uncertainty and BRIC stock markets (2016)Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis (2019)An empirical test of signalling theory (2020)Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets (1988)Implied Binomial Trees (1994)The Limits of Arbitrage (1995)Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets (2007)The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies? (2007)The Promise of Prediction Markets (2008)Comparative Economic Organization: The Analysis of Discrete Structural Alternatives (1991)A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation (1994)The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead (2000)Bandwagon, Underdog, or Projection? Opinion Polls and Electoral Choice in Britain, 1979-1987 (1991)Stability and Coordination in Duverger's Law: A Formal Model of Preelection Polls and Strategic Voting (1997)Sour Grapes, Sweet Lemons, and the Anticipatory Rationalization of the Status Quo (2002)Self-fulfilling prophecies (1981)The contingent valuation method: a review (2003)Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs (2009)Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage (1987)The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market (1992)Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures (2006)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1996The Use of Knowledge in Society6,434 cited
  • 1939Value and Capital2,893 cited
  • 1971A Treatise on Money1,728 cited
  • 1978The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President971 cited
  • 2004Prediction Markets886 cited
  • 1993Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?847 cited
  • 1992Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market551 cited
  • 1954Bandwagon and Underdog Effects and the Possibility of Election Predictions326 cited
  • 1999Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets283 cited
  • 1996The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy262 cited
  • 2008Handbook of Experimental Economic Results127 cited

Cited by

  • 2012U.S. Presidential Elections and Implied Volatility: The Role of Political Uncertainty267 cited
  • 2010Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task240 cited
  • 2013Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?181 cited
  • 2009A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design161 cited

Only edges whose both ends are imported exist here. Widen the year window, or show the whole map. Back to the work

  • 2013Combining forecasts: An application to elections160 cited
  • 2012Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging158 cited
  • 2012Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections113 cited
  • 2012Decoding Social Influence and the Wisdom of the Crowd in Financial Trading Network101 cited
  • 2011Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions Versus Expectations101 cited
  • 2010Prediction accuracy of different market structures — bookmakers versus a betting exchange94 cited
  • 2014The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?55 cited
  • 2014Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster54 cited
  • 2010Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda48 cited
  • 2011MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETS48 cited
  • 2015An Experimental Analysis of Information Acquisition in Prediction Markets46 cited
  • 2021Open Strategy43 cited