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Prediction market accuracy in the long run · Study

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ArticlePrediction market accuracy in the long run

Joyce E. Berg2008

Article2008

Prediction market accuracy in the long run

Joyce E. Berg · Forrest D. Nelson · Thomas A. Rietz

316 citations·0/0 files stored·International Journal of Forecasting

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Sports Analytics and Performance Electoral Systems and Political Participation Forecasting Techniques and Applications

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References

1996The Use of Knowledge in Society 1939Value and Capital 1971A Treatise on Money 1978The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President 2004Prediction Markets 1993Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?1992Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market 1954Bandwagon and Underdog Effects and the Possibility of Election Predictions

Cited by

2012U.S. Presidential Elections and Implied Volatility: The Role of Political Uncertainty 2010Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task 2013Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?2009A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design 2013Combining forecasts: An application to elections 2012Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging

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2005Elections and Markets: The Effect of Partisanship, Policy Risk, and Electoral Margins on the Economyarticle · 5 shared references 2013Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?article · 4 shared references 2003Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Marketsarticle · 4 shared references 2008Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offeringarticle · 4 shared references 2003Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecastingarticle · 3 shared references 2007Rationality in Economics: Constructivist and Ecological Formsarticle · 3 shared references

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Year2008

Typearticle

Published2008-04-01

VenueInternational Journal of Forecasting

ISSN-L0169-2070

Languageen

Citations316

Files0 public / 0

ShelfSports Analytics and Performance

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doi10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007

openalex_workW2015736731

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2012

Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

2012Decoding Social Influence and the Wisdom of the Crowd in Financial Trading Network