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Extrapolation of exponential time series is not enhanced by having more data points

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References

1962Statistical principles in experimental design.27,141 cited
1975Misperception of exponential growth293 cited
1977Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth52 cited
1978Intuitive Prediction of Growth16 cited

Cited by

1986The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–198484 cited
2011Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information – A review of the literature53 cited
1994Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting47 cited
2022How do bank managers forecast the future in the shadow of the past? An examination of expected credit losses under IFRS 930 cited
2018Biased predictions of students’ future achievement: An experimental study on pre-service teachers’ interpretation of curriculum-based measurement graphs16 cited
2022Exponential Growth Bias and the Law: Why Do We Save Too Little, Borrow Too Much, and Fail to React on Time to Deadly Pandemics and Climate Change?5 cited
1984Do not inflate exponentially the evidence for the polynomial model: A reply to Jones4 cited
2021Mathematics, Psychology, and Law: The Legal Ramifications of the Exponential Growth Bias4 cited

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