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Macro variables and international stock return predictability
16 references·16 citing·26 second hopsampled
Macro variables and international stock return predictability (2004)Macro variables and international stock r…Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns (2001)Consumption, Aggregate Wealth…Forecasting Economic Time Series (2000)Forecasting Economic Time Ser…Predictive regressions (1999)Predictive regressionsBy Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior (1999)By Force of Habit: A Consumpt…Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability (1996)Asymptotic Inference about Pr…Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1995)Comparing Predictive AccuracyComparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Comparing Predictive AccuracyDividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement (1992)Dividend Yields and Expected …Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds (1989)Business conditions and expec…Economic Forces and the Stock Market (1986)Economic Forces and the Stock…Stock Returns and the Term Structure (1985)Stock Returns and the Term St…Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money (1981)Stock Returns, Real Activity,…An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities (1979)An intertemporal asset pricin…Asset returns and inflation (1977)Asset returns and inflationThe arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing (1976)The arbitrage theory of capit…An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (1973)An Intertemporal Capital Asse…Organization and Time (2022)Organization and TimePredictability of GCC stock returns: The role of geopolitical risk and crude oil returns (2020)Predictability of GCC stock r…Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss (2020)Forecasting realized oil-pric…The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the German Stock Market: Evidence for the Crisis, Pre- and Post-Crisis Periods (2019)The Impact of Macroeconomic F…Predicting Bitcoin returns: Comparing the roles of newspaper- and internet search-based measures of uncertainty (2019)Predicting Bitcoin returns: C…Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach (2017)Does Geopolitical Risks Predi…US Stock Market And Macroeconomic Factors (2015)US Stock Market And Macroecon…Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence (2015)Stock return forecasting: Som…Stock prices and macroeconomic factors: Some European evidence (2015)Stock prices and macroeconomi…Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Markets: Evidence from Emerging Markets (2015)Impact of Macroeconomic Varia…Democracy, political risks and stock market performance (2015)Democracy, political risks an…Testing for Predictability in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Stock Returns (2014)Testing for Predictability in…Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns? (2012)Does the choice of estimator …The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting (2008)The Continuing Puzzle of Shor…Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators (2008)Predicting the bear stock mar…Macro and non-macro explanatory factors of Chinese hotel stock returns (2006)Macro and non-macro explanato…MONEY, INCOME, AND CAUSALITY (1972)Efficient Capital Markets: II (1991)A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction (2007)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets (1965)THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.] (1975)Expected stock returns and volatility (1987)On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks (1993)Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests (1973)Industry costs of equity (1997)A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (1985)A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options (1993)The relationship between return and market value of common stocks (1981)Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects (2002)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach (1991)Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring (1984)The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns (1992)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles (2000)Relative Income, Happiness, and Utility: An Explanation for the Easterlin Paradox and Other Puzzles (2008)Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Provide Accurate Forecasts (1998)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors (1997)Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions (2017)
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References

  • 1976The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing7,081 cited
  • 1973An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model6,557 cited
  • 1994Comparing Predictive Accuracy5,495 cited
  • 1986Economic Forces and the Stock Market5,258 cited
  • 1995Comparing Predictive Accuracy5,214 cited
  • 1999By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior5,088 cited
  • 1989Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds3,934 cited
  • 1977Asset returns and inflation2,701 cited
  • 1979An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities2,694 cited
  • 1981Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money2,632 cited
  • 1985Stock Returns and the Term Structure2,260 cited
  • 2001Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns2,187 cited
  • 2000Forecasting Economic Time Series1,768 cited
  • 1999Predictive regressions1,614 cited
  • 1992Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement1,521 cited
  • 1996Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability

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Cited by

  • 2014Testing for Predictability in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Stock Returns284 cited
  • 2008Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators283 cited
  • 2012Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?265 cited
  • 2015Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence217 cited
  • 2015Democracy, political risks and stock market performance188 cited
  • 2008The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting169 cited
  • 2015Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Markets: Evidence from Emerging Markets161 cited
  • 2020Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss146 cited
  • 2017Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach145 cited
  • 2006Macro and non-macro explanatory factors of Chinese hotel stock returns120 cited
  • 2020Predictability of GCC stock returns: The role of geopolitical risk and crude oil returns120 cited
  • 2015Stock prices and macroeconomic factors: Some European evidence110 cited
  • 2019Predicting Bitcoin returns: Comparing the roles of newspaper- and internet search-based measures of uncertainty97 cited
  • 2022Organization and Time82 cited
  • 2015US Stock Market And Macroeconomic Factors80 cited
  • 2019The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the German Stock Market: Evidence for the Crisis, Pre- and Post-Crisis Periods79 cited