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Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting
16 references·16 citing·30 second hopsampled
Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting (1982)Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfide…Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Theory of games and economic …Games and Decisions (2015)Games and DecisionsCalibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…A progress report on the training of probability assessors (1982)A progress report on the trai…Training for calibration (1980)Training for calibrationA model of calibration for subjective probabilities (1980)A model of calibration for su…Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables (1978)Eliciting subjective probabil…Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs (1977)Decision Making and Change in…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market (1972)Probabilistic forecasting: An…Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and re…Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. (1966)Conservatism in a simple prob…Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1946)Theory of Games and Economic …Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1945)Theory of Games and Economic …The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1945)The Theory of Games and Econo…An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules (2016)An Overview of Applications o…The Origin of Failure: A Multidisciplinary Appraisal of the Hubris Hypothesis and Proposed Research Agenda (2014)The Origin of Failure: A Mult…Improving visual estimation through active feedback (2012)Improving visual estimation t…When confidence is detrimental: Influence of overconfidence on leadership effectiveness (2011)When confidence is detrimenta…How egocentrism and optimism change in response to feedback in repeated competitions (2007)How egocentrism and optimism …Overconfidence in new start‐up success probability judgement (2006)Overconfidence in new start‐u…Experimental Tests of Subjective Bayesian Methods (2005)Experimental Tests of Subject…Improving calibration without training: the role of task information (2003)Improving calibration without…Outcome Feedback Effects on Risk Propensity in an MCPLP Task (1996)Outcome Feedback Effects on R…Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature (1996)Judgemental and statistical t…A review of NRC staff uses of probabilistic risk assessment (1994)A review of NRC staff uses of…Coherence and calibration in expert probability judgement (1993)Coherence and calibration in …Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: Two different accounts (1993)Calibration of sensory and co…A blueprint of ELI: A new method for eliciting subjective probability distributions (1993)A blueprint of ELI: A new met…The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters (1992)The effects of feedback and t…Information systems design: an empirical study of feedback effects (1992)Information systems design: a…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors (2000)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)The Evolution of Reciprocal Altruism (1971)Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (1972)The New Institutionalism: Organizational Factors in Political Life (1983)Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility (1980)Development of prosocial, individualistic, and competitive orientations: Theory and preliminary evidence. (1997)Political Choice in Britain (2004)Toward a positive theory of consumer choice (1980)Non-cooperative games (1989)Frontiers in Group Dynamics (1947)A Method for Evaluating the Distribution of Power in a Committee System (1954)Measurement of health state utilities for economic appraisal (1986)Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. (1955)Features of similarity. (1977)Evolutionary game dynamics (2003)Development of NASA-TLX (Task Load Index): Results of Empirical and Theoretical Research (1988)Epistemic Injustice (2007)
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References

  • 1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases28,742 cited
  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 2019Theory of games and economic behavior16,630 cited
  • 1945The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior5,134 cited
  • 1945Theory of Games and Economic Behavior4,006 cited
  • 2015Games and Decisions3,632 cited
  • 1946Theory of Games and Economic Behavior3,280 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
  • 1982A progress report on the training of probability assessors859 cited
  • 1966Conservatism in a simple probability inference task.856 cited
  • 1980Training for calibration382 cited
  • 1972Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market248 cited
  • 1977Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs219 cited
  • 1980A model of calibration for subjective probabilities192 cited
  • 1978Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables

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105 cited

Cited by

  • 2014The Origin of Failure: A Multidisciplinary Appraisal of the Hubris Hypothesis and Proposed Research Agenda183 cited
  • 1996Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature177 cited
  • 2011When confidence is detrimental: Influence of overconfidence on leadership effectiveness119 cited
  • 1992The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters92 cited
  • 2012Improving visual estimation through active feedback54 cited
  • 1993Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: Two different accounts47 cited
  • 2016An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules47 cited
  • 2007How egocentrism and optimism change in response to feedback in repeated competitions30 cited
  • 2006Overconfidence in new start‐up success probability judgement27 cited
  • 1996Outcome Feedback Effects on Risk Propensity in an MCPLP Task23 cited
  • 2003Improving calibration without training: the role of task information19 cited
  • 1994A review of NRC staff uses of probabilistic risk assessment15 cited
  • 1993Coherence and calibration in expert probability judgement12 cited
  • 1992Information systems design: an empirical study of feedback effects9 cited
  • 1993A blueprint of ELI: A new method for eliciting subjective probability distributions6 cited
  • 2005Experimental Tests of Subjective Bayesian Methods4 cited