Can Social Media Predict Election Results? Evidence From New Zealand

Michael P. Cameron · Patrick Barrett

118 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Political Marketing

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Social Media and Politics Electoral Systems and Political Participation Digital Marketing and Social Media

Abstract

The importance of social media for election campaigning has received a lot of attention recently. Using data from the 2011 New Zealand general election and the size of candidates’ social media networks on Facebook and Twitter, we investigate whether social media is associated with election votes and probability of election success. Overall, our results suggest that there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of online social networks and election voting and election results. However, the size of the effect is small and it appears that social media presence is therefore only predictive in closely contested elections.

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2009Who interacts on the Web?: The intersection of users’ personality and social media use 2010Election Forecasts With Twitter 2011From Networked Nominee to Networked Nation: Examining the Impact of Web 2.0 and Social Media on Political Participation and Civic Engagement in the 2008 Obama Campaign 2011How (Not) to Predict Elections 2010Twitter 2021The Party Is Over Here: Structure and Content in the 2010 Election 2009Networked Publics: The Double Articulation of Code and Politics on Facebook

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