Population Growth in U. S. Prisons, 1980-1996

Abstract

State and federal incarceration rates grew by over 200 percent between 1980 and 1996. The dominant factor is drug offending, which grew by ten times, followed by assault and sexual assault. The growth can be partitioned among four stages: offending rates; arrests per offense; commitments to prison per arrest; and time served in prison, including time served on parole recommitments. The growth in incarceration for drugs is driven most strongly by growth in arrest rates, then by commitments per arrest; there is some increase in time served, but only in the federal system. For other offenses, there are no changes in arrests per reported offense and a net decline in offending rates. Over the full period, the growth in state incarceration for nondrug offenses is attributable entirely to sentencing increases: 42 percent to commitments per arrest and 58 percent to time-served increases. Recently, new court commitments and parole violations have flattened out; the dominant contributor to current growth for all the offenses examined is time served. Incarceration rates rose faster for women (364 percent) and minorities (184 percent for African Americans and 235 percent for Hispanics) than for men (195 percent) and non-Hispanic whites (164 percent).

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