Integrative Complexity Theory and Forecasting International Crises

Abstract

Can integrative complexity theory be successfully employed to forecast international crises? To answer this question this study focuses on the conflict-prone relationship between the United States and USSR in Berlin, 1946 to 1962. Two hypotheses were tested. Hypothesis 1 predicted that significant declines in the cognitive complexity of U.S. and USSR foreign policy elites would be exhibited just prior to the onset of crises in June 1948 and June 1961. Hypothesis 2 predicted, however, that following the onset of crisis, the participants would exhibit patterns of rising complexity leading to peaceful conflict resolution. The results generally supported the hypotheses. First, significant declines in complexity occurred from 1946 to 1962 only in the two periods ending six months prior to the two major crises. Second, significant phase-to-phase increases in complexity were exhibited by the participants in both crises. The study provides initial evidence of the theory's utility for crisis forecasting.

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