Is Strike Behavior Cyclical?

Abstract

We examine cyclicality of strike frequency and incidence, using Canadian data on strikes and contracts. Total strike frequency exhibits significant procyclicality, to which within-contract strikes contribute appreciably. Evidence is weaker for procyclical behavior of contract-expiry strikes, both in total and disaggregated by issue. Strike incidence is also procyclical, particularly in manufacturing, though the procyclicality here is confined to strikes over nonwage issues. These results mirror those obtained by analyzing the frequency of strikes in the contract data. Industry-specific cyclical variables positively affect strike incidence in manufacturing, but region-specific variables have no effect.

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