Induced Fertility Transition: Impact of Population Planning and Socio- Economic Change in the People's Republic of China

Abstract

Summary Provincial fertility and socio-economic data (urbanization, total industrial and agricultural output, and life expectancy at birth by sex) are used to assess the relative influence of population planning programmes and socio-economic change. Four hypotheses are tested. The results support all but one of them, and permit the inference that differences in rates of natural increase at the provincial level reflect differences in socio-economic conditions. Thus, while ‘induced fertility transition’ in China since the early 1970s deserves to be acclaimed as an outstanding success in government-initiated and government-directed family planning activities, it should not be viewed separately from socio-economic change, both in the past and the present.

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