The Fear of Population Decline

Abstract

Current levels of fertility in developed countries may represent a temporary pause on a continuing downward trendline, the bottom of a long decline, or some sort of equilibrium level of fertility in a postindustrial society. Concerns about population decline are entangled in major political and social questions and tend to focus on perceived shortages of particular groups of humans (eg regional or subnational groups defined culturally). If indeed Western nations determine that the trend toward declining fertility is a major concern, 4 policy responses are possible: 1) limit access to fertility control methods, 2) encourage higher fertility through economic incentives, 3) increase immigration, or 4) adapt to declining and aging populations through measures such as modifying the terms of social security provision or converting age-related facilities to other social purposes. Although the threats of sustained low fertility should not be minimized, there is a danger that politicians and ideologues from both the Left and the Right will resort to the same exaggerated rhetoric used by population explosion alarmists in the 1960s and 1970s.

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