Stagflation in the UK Since 1970: A Model-Based Explanation∗

Abstract

The UK's economic performance, like that in many industrial economies, worsened in the 1970s after about twenty years of relatively stable and strong growth and low inflation. This article investigates to what extent this worsening in performance can be attributed to factors outside the UK's control—to world recession—and how far it was the result of domestic policies. Simulations of the NIESR model suggest that about half of the slackening in output growth can be explained by these two sets of factors. Adverse trends in import and export behaviour appear the major behavioural impediment to faster economic growth.

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