2005 Fred Burggraf Award, Planning and Environment: How Far in Advance Are Activities Planned?: Measurement Challenges and Analysis

Abstract

The development of simulation models of activity-scheduling behavior has gained momentum over the past decade as a means to forecast travel demands. Of fundamental concern in these models is the process or timing of scheduling decisions–-or planning time horizon. Conceptually, it is understood that activities are planned over varying time horizons, but little empirical evidence exists. One way to explore these issues is to ask people to self-report when they planned their activities. However, this is a difficult question for researchers to formulate and for people to comprehend and recall, because people often plan (and replan) activity attributes over an extended period of time, some without much conscious thought. The objective of this paper is to describe the development of a planning time horizon query that was part of a larger activity scheduling process survey and to provide one of the first empirical analyses based on a random sample of 373 respondents. Included is a detailed examination of activity addition, modification, and trip-planning time horizons as well as analysis of “routine” and “unrecalled” decisions. Results indicate that people have the ability to recall a high level of detail on a planning time horizon, ranging from decisions made long ago that establish an initial skeleton schedule to continued preplanning in the days leading up to the event day and impulsive decisions made the day of the event. The implications of these results for future survey design and development of an activity-scheduling process simulation model are discussed.

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