From west to east: Environmental influences on the rate and pathways of Polynesian colonization

Álvaro Montenegro · Scott Michael Fitzpatrick

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Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies Island Studies and Pacific Affairs Global Maritime and Colonial Histories

Abstract

The prime movers behind the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania, and in particular the large c. 2000-year temporal gap (i.e. ‘long pause’) seen between West and East Polynesia, has long been major point of interest in the Pacific. To address these events and the processes that may have led to the known chronological disparity of these diasporas, we present results from two different, but equally powerful, analytical tools which are used to examine Polynesian seafaring capabilities and trajectories. The first is a statistical model known as Seascape, which simulates voyages, while the second uses ease of eastward travel estimates based on land distribution and wind pattern analysis. These analyses were done with the goal of determining the potential role of environmental factors in the colonization process, particularly as they relate to the long pause. We show that the eastern boundary of West Polynesia, the limit of the initial colonization pulse, is marked by a discontinuity in land distribution, where the distances travelers would have to cross in order to reach islands further to the east become significantly larger. At the same time, in West Polynesia, the frequency and intensity of winds favorable to eastward displacement decrease continuously from west to east. As far as winds are concerned, eastward travel in West Polynesia is favored in the northern and southern areas and much more difficult across the central portion. Favorable winds have a clear seasonality, and eastward displacement along the northern area is much easier under El Niño conditions. Voyaging simulations show that intentional eastward voyages departing from Tonga and Samoa, when undertaken with vessels capable of sailing efficiently against the wind, afford a viable route toward several island groups in East Polynesia, with trips starting in Samoa having a higher probability of success.

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References

1947Journal of the Polynesian Society 2010High-precision radiocarbon dating shows recent and rapid initial human colonization of East Polynesia 1992The Prehistoric Exploration and Colonisation of the Pacific 1993Late colonization of East Polynesia 2006Late Colonization of Easter Island 1972We, the Navigators 2006Prehistoric maritime migration in the Pacific islands: an hypothesis of ENSO forcing 1994Palaeoenvironmental evidence for human colonization of remote Oceanic islands

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