Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time

Steve M. Swidler · David Neal Ketcher

32 citations0/0 files storedJournal of money credit and banking

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Financial Markets and Investment Strategies

Abstract

This study analyzes real GNP and inflation forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The survey revises annual growth rate estimates every month, thus making it possible to analyze the value of new information and its contribution to the estimates' predictive power of the actual values. If information is used efficiently, updated forecasts should provide more accurate predictions. The empirical results suggest that the revised forecasts of real GNP growth and inflation incorporate new information in a rational manner. In addition, the most recent inflation forecasts are found to be unbiased estimates on the actual rate of inflation. Copyright 1990 by Ohio State University Press.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 32 citations exist upstream.

References

1980Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis 1981What do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations 1977A Study of Price Forecasts 1975A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations 1978On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data 1979Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects 1988How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts 1986Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: Comment

Cited by

2004The Rationality and Efficiency of Individuals' Forecasts 2013Forecast revisions of Mexican inflation and GDP growth 2015What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile 2011Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation: Blue Chip Clairvoyants or Econometrics?2001Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.