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Pitfalls in Population Forecasts and Projections

89 citations0/0 files storedJournal of the American Statistical Association

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications Census and Population Estimation

Abstract

This paper reviews the development of demography, and especially of population forecasting, and discusses the current demographic situation. The merits and limitations of several methods of making population predictions, and errors in demographic thinking are examined. The complexity of the problem of making forecasts either for short periods or long-time trends with the techniques now available is pointed out.

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2015Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative 1999On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy 2001Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data 1988Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors 1955The Prospects for Population Forecasts 2001Standards and Practices for Forecasting

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