Articlehybrid2021

Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term

77 citations0/0 files storedInternational Journal of Forecasting

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications Census and Population Estimation

Abstract

Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, assess changes, and make decisions involving risks. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn depend on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. While the world population is projected to grow for the rest of this century, it will likely stabilize in the 22nd century and decline in the 23rd century.

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References

2002Broken Limits to Life Expectancy 1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 2002Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes 2020Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2014World population stabilization unlikely this century 1991World population prospects 2006Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?2016Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction

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