POINT-ESTIMATE MOMENT-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

In moment-based reliability analysis, the probability of failure is calculated from a probability distribution fitted to the first few calculated moments of a limit state function. The calculation of the moments and the distributions fitting in the analysis are described. We suggest using the point estimate method to calculate the moments of the limit state function. A probability distribution from the Gram-Charlier series type A distributions or the Johnson family of distributions is selected to fit the calculated moments. The method, in general, does not require knowledge of the probability distributions of the basic random variables involved in the limit state function but their statistical moments. The method is simple to implement and can be used directly with an available deterministic computer program because it does not require iteration or derivatives of the limit state function.

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