Article1994

Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts

144 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Forecasting

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Abstract

Abstract A decomposition of the Brier skill score shows that the performance of judgmental forecasts depends on seven components: environmental predictability, fidelity of the information system, match between environment and forecaster, reliability of information acquisition, reliability of information processing, conditional bias, and unconditional bias. These components provide a framework for research on the forecasting process. Selected literature addressing each component is reviewed, and implications for improving judgmental forecasting are discussed.

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References

1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1974Foundations of Behavioral Research 1984Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.1956Perception and the Representative Design of Psychological Experiments 1979The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 1974Linear models in decision making.1975Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.

Cited by

2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”1995Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem 2004Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released From Prison.2006Forecasting with cue information: A comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches 2001Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts

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