Chapter2001

Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts

89 citations0/0 files storedInternational series in management science/operations research/International series in operations research & management science

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

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1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1979Review of Psychometric theory (2nd ed.).1956Perception and the Representative Design of Psychological Experiments 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography 1996EXPERT AND EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE: Evidence of Maximal Adaptation to Task Constraints 1979The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 1974Linear models in decision making.

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2001Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting 2001Standards and Practices for Forecasting 2007The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts 2001Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation 2005Adoption of behaviour: predicting success for major innovations 2011MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETS

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