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Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts
16 references·7 citing·38 second hop
Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts (2001)Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forec…Principles of Forecasting (2001)Principles of ForecastingHuman judgment and social policy: irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice (1997)Human judgment and social pol…Human Judgment and Social Policy (1996)Human Judgment and Social Pol…EXPERT AND EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE: Evidence of Maximal Adaptation to Task Constraints (1996)EXPERT AND EXCEPTIONAL PERFOR…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1990)Combining forecasts: A review…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)Combining forecasts: A review…Rational choice in an uncertain world (1988)Rational choice in an uncerta…Organizational behavior and human decision processes (1988)Organizational behavior and h…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. (1979)The robust beauty of improper…Review of Psychometric theory (2nd ed.). (1979)Review of Psychometric theory…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Linear models in decision making. (1974)Linear models in decision mak…Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and re…Perception and the Representative Design of Psychological Experiments (1956)Perception and the Representa…The Conceptual Framework of Psychology (1954)The Conceptual Framework of P…How experts' own inconsistency relates to their confidence and between-expert disagreement (2019)How experts' own inconsistenc…MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETS (2011)MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS B…The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2007)The Ombudsman: Value of Exper…Adoption of behaviour: predicting success for major innovations (2005)Adoption of behaviour: predic…Standards and Practices for Forecasting (2001)Standards and Practices for F…Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation (2001)Rule-Based Forecasting: Using…Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting (2001)Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inf…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an example. (1974)The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications (2000)25 years of time series forecasting (2006)Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations (2006)Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure (1966)A circumplex model of affect. (1980)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristic Decision Making (2010)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. (1993)LIFESPAN PSYCHOLOGY: Theory and Application to Intellectual Functioning (1999)Wisdom: A metaheuristic (pragmatic) to orchestrate mind and virtue toward excellence. (2000)The Influence of Experience and Deliberate Practice on the Development of Superior Expert Performance (2006)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, and User Acceptance of Information Technology (1989)Absorptive Capacity: A New Perspective on Learning and Innovation (1990)A Comparison of the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Theory of Reasoned Action (1992)Emotional Labor in Service Roles: The Influence of Identity (1993)HARKing: Hypothesizing After the Results are Known (1998)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Structural equation modeling in practice: A review and recommended two-step approach. (1988)Common method biases in behavioral research: A critical review of the literature and recommended remedies. (2003)A new criterion for assessing discriminant validity in variance-based structural equation modeling (2014)The two disciplines of scientific psychology. (1957)Self-Efficacy: A Theoretical Analysis of Its Determinants and Malleability (1992)Feedback and Self-Regulated Learning: A Theoretical Synthesis (1995)Accounting for common method variance in cross-sectional research designs. (2001)
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References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1979Review of Psychometric theory (2nd ed.).11,425 cited
  • 1956Perception and the Representative Design of Psychological Experiments2,974 cited
  • 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography2,170 cited
  • 1996EXPERT AND EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE: Evidence of Maximal Adaptation to Task Constraints2,136 cited
  • 1979The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.1,969 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1974Linear models in decision making.1,878 cited
  • 1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
  • 1988Organizational behavior and human decision processes1,753 cited
  • 1990Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography1,465 cited
  • 1988Rational choice in an uncertain world1,292 cited
  • 2001Principles of Forecasting1,178 cited
  • 1954The Conceptual Framework of Psychology1,042 cited
  • 1996Human Judgment and Social Policy851 cited
  • 1997

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Human judgment and social policy: irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice
719 cited

Cited by

  • 2001Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting78 cited
  • 2001Standards and Practices for Forecasting63 cited
  • 2007The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts62 cited
  • 2001Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation54 cited
  • 2005Adoption of behaviour: predicting success for major innovations52 cited
  • 2011MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETS48 cited
  • 2019How experts' own inconsistency relates to their confidence and between-expert disagreement4 cited