The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Consumption and Investment in Nicaragua

Abstract

This article examines the impact of a Nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment. Despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures, there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non-agricultural investment. An estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one, combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption, corroborate the direct evidence on investment. In contrast to gains made in human capital investment, the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited.

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