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Fallacies in probability judgments for conjunctions and disjunctions of everyday events
16 references·7 citing·38 second hop
Fallacies in probability judgments for conjunctions and disjunctions of everyday events (2008)Fallacies in probability judgments for co…The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction? (2004)The conjunction fallacy: a mi…Frequency illusions and other fallacies (2003)Frequency illusions and other…Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration (2001)Do Frequency Representations …The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors (1999)The ‘conjunction fallacy’ rev…Visions of rationality (1998)Visions of rationalityIndividual Differences in Framing and Conjunction Effects (1998)Individual Differences in Fra…On the reality of cognitive illusions. (1996)On the reality of cognitive i…On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. (1996)On narrow norms and vague heu…Causal Attribution as a Search for Underlying Mechanisms: An Explanation of the Conjunction Fallacy and the Discounting Principle (1996)Causal Attribution as a Searc…Subjective probability (1995)Subjective probabilitySimultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. (1993)How alike is it versus how li…Conversational Implicature, Conscious Representation, and the Conjunction Fallacy (1991)Conversational Implicature, C…Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations? (1991)Are conjunction rule violatio…The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors (1988)The dependence of the conjunc…Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Extensional versus intuitive …The conjunction fallacy: confirmation or relevance? (2024)The conjunction fallacy: conf…A unified explanation of variability and bias in human probability judgments: How computational noise explains the mean–variance signature. (2023)A unified explanation of vari…Good Guesses (2021)Good GuessesDECISION‐MAKING MODELS, DECISION SUPPORT, AND PROBLEM SOLVING (2021)DECISION‐MAKING MODELS, DECIS…Towards a pattern-based logic of probability judgements and logical inclusion “fallacies” (2016)Towards a pattern-based logic…Are People Naïve Probability Theorists? A Further Examination of the Probability Theory + Variation Model (2014)Are People Naïve Probability …Surprisingly Rational: Evidence that people follow probability theory when judging probabilities, and that biases in judgment are due to noise (2012)Surprisingly Rational: Eviden…The Principles of Psychology (1891)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Relevance: Communication and Cognition (1986)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Heuristics and biases as measures of critical thinking: Associations with cognitive ability and thinking dispositions. 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(2000)Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. (2002)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review (2002)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition (2007)Arbitrary metrics in psychology. (2006)Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010)Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition (2012)The potential benefits of teacher efficacy doubts for educational reform (2002)The intricate relationships between monitoring and control in metacognition: Lessons for the cause-and-effect relation between subjective experience and behavior. (2006)Editorial (2015)
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References

  • 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.3,990 cited
  • 1996On the reality of cognitive illusions.1,466 cited
  • 1996On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky.1,070 cited
  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited
  • 1999The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors538 cited
  • 2001Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration449 cited
  • 1988The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors422 cited
  • 1995Subjective probability364 cited
  • 2003Frequency illusions and other fallacies266 cited
  • 1991Conversational Implicature, Conscious Representation, and the Conjunction Fallacy263 cited
  • 1998Individual Differences in Framing and Conjunction Effects229 cited
  • 1991Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations?197 cited
  • 1993How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments.188 cited
  • 1998Visions of rationality173 cited
  • 1996Causal Attribution as a Search for Underlying Mechanisms: An Explanation of the Conjunction Fallacy and the Discounting Principle

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124 cited
  • 2004The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?116 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2021Good Guesses33 cited
    • 2023A unified explanation of variability and bias in human probability judgments: How computational noise explains the mean–variance signature.11 cited
    • 2021DECISION‐MAKING MODELS, DECISION SUPPORT, AND PROBLEM SOLVING10 cited
    • 2014Are People Naïve Probability Theorists? A Further Examination of the Probability Theory + Variation Model8 cited
    • 2024The conjunction fallacy: confirmation or relevance?5 cited
    • 2016Towards a pattern-based logic of probability judgements and logical inclusion “fallacies”4 cited
    • 2012Surprisingly Rational: Evidence that people follow probability theory when judging probabilities, and that biases in judgment are due to noise1 cited