‘The Ghosts I Called I Can’t Get Rid of Now’: the Keynes-Tinbergen- Friedman-Phillips Critique of Keynesian Macroeconometrics

Abstract

This chapter offers a fresh perspective on the much publicized dispute between those followers of Keynes who presented econometric evidence in favour of a Phillips curve trade-off, and those monetarists who presented counter econometric evidence. Contrary to common perceptions, the collapse of the Keynesian Phillips curve was a vindication of a common critique of macroeconometric practices, which was jointly authored by John Maynard Keynes, Jan Tinbergen, Milton Friedman and A. W. H. ‘Bill’ Phillips. This analysis is informed by the usual sources, plus two sources which had been thought to be no longer in existence (Phillips’s private papers and the London School of Economics (LSE) Methodology, Measurement and Testing (M2T) Staff Seminar records), plus two essays by Keynes (1938a, 1938b) which have been overlooked in this context.

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