Article2002

Context and the interpretation of likelihood information: The role of intergroup comparisons on perceived vulnerability.

Paul D. Windschitl · René Martin · Annette R. Flugstad

63 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Personality and Social Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Social and Intergroup Psychology Risk Perception and Management

Abstract

Four experiments investigated how people's perceptions about a group's (e.g., women's) vulnerability to a disease are influenced by information about the prevalence of the disease in a comparable group (e.g., men). Participants read symptom and prevalence infomation about fictitious diseases before answering questions regarding target group vulnerability. Participants used the prevalence rate for a nontarget group as an immediate comparison standard for intuitively interpreting the degree of vulnerability of a target group, resulting in robust contrast effects. Experiments 3 and 4 illustrated that these contrast effects can cause a person's intuitive perceptions about a group's vulnerability to selected diseases to conflict with his or her knowledge of the prevalence rates for the diseases. The results support a distinction between 2 components of psychological uncertainty-beliefs in objective probability and more intuitive perceptions of certainty.

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Cited by

2017Perceptions of measles, pneumonia, and meningitis vaccines among caregivers in Shanghai, China, and the health belief model: a cross-sectional study 2004The Dud-Alternative Effect in Likelihood Judgment.2015The narrative bias revisited: What drives the biasing influence of narrative information on risk perceptions?2006The effect of target group size on risk judgments and comparative optimism: The more, the riskier.2015The gist of juries: Testing a model of damage award decision making.2016Risk (Mis)Perception: When Greater Risk Reduces Risk Valuation

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