Is the Glass Emptying or Filling Up? Reconciling Divergent Trends in High School Completion and Dropout

Abstract

Conclusions about levels and trends in high school dropout differ dramatically depending on whether dropout is measured using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) or from the Common Core of Data (CCD). Using CPS- and CCD-based drop-out measures for 16- to 19-year-olds—which differ solely in their estimates of the number of 16- to 19-year-olds holding high school credentials—the authors show that half of the differences in estimated drop-out rates are due to how private school graduates and GED recipients are counted. The other half is likely attributable to CPS respondents’ misstatements of their children’s high school completion status. The rate at which students complete (or fail to complete) high school is best measured using CCD data.

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