Articlebronze2004

Evaluation of methodologies for small area life expectancy estimation

105 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Epidemiology & Community Health

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Methods in Epidemiology demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To evaluate methods for calculating life expectancy in small areas, for example, English electoral wards. DESIGN: The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the distribution of life expectancy (and its standard error) estimates for 10 alternative life table models. The models were combinations of Chiang or Silcocks methodology, 5 or 10 year age intervals, and a final age interval of 85+, 90+, or 95+. SETTING: A hypothetical small area experiencing the population age structure and age specific mortality rates of English men 1998-2000. PARTICIPANTS: Routine mortality and population statistics for England. MAIN RESULTS: Silcocks and Chiang based models gave similar estimates of life expectancy and its standard error. For all models, life expectancy was increasingly overestimated as the simulated population size decreased. The degree of overestimation depended largely on the final age interval chosen. Life expectancy estimates of small populations are normally distributed. The standard error estimates are normally distributed for large populations but become increasingly skewed as the population size decreases. Substitution methods to compensate for the effect of zero death counts on the standard error estimate did not improve the estimate. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that a population years at risk of 5000 is a reasonable point above which life expectancy calculations can be performed with reasonable confidence. Implications are discussed. Within the UK, the Chiang methodology and a five year life table to 85+ is recommended, with no adjustments to age specific death counts of zero.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 105 citations exist upstream.

References

1986A Biometrics Invited Paper with Discussion: The Natural Variability of Vital Rates and Associated Statistics 1988Methods and Models in Demography 2001Life expectancy as a summary of mortality in a population: statistical considerations and suitability for use by health authorities

Cited by

2016Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes 2017Using the National Health Information Database of the National Health Insurance Service in Korea for Monitoring Mortality and Life Expectancy at National and Local Levels 2016Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates for small areas with TOPALS regression: an application to Brazil in 2010 2011Significance of life table estimates for small populations: Simulation-based study of estimation errors 2012Comparison of Bayesian Random-Effects and Traditional Life Expectancy Estimations in Small-Area Applications 2009Remaining life expectancy among older people in a rural area of Vietnam: trends and socioeconomic inequalities during a period of multiple transitions 2016Life expectancy of different ethnic groups using death records linked to population census data for 4.62 million people in Scotland 2020Income-related inequality in quality-adjusted life expectancy in Korea at the national and district levels

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.