A Seasonal ARIMA Model of Tourism Forecasting: The Case of Taiwan

Yu‐Wei Chang · Mengyuan Liao

81 citations0/0 files storedAsia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Forecasting Techniques and Applications Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

This paper aims to determine suitable SARIMA models to forecast the monthly outbound tourism departures of three major destinations from Taiwan to Hong Kong, Japan and the USA, respectively. The HEGY test is used to identify the deterministic seasonality in the data. The mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) is used to measure forecast accuracy. A low MAPE demonstrates the adequacy of the fitted SARIMA models. The results indicate that all series with first non-seasonal difference are needed to obtain the deterministic trend in outbound tourism series in Taiwan.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 81 citations exist upstream.

References

1977Book Review: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1971Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control.1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1990Seasonal integration and cointegration 1983Forecasting with Univariate Box‐Jenkins Models 1993Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data 2003A comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting 2005Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau

Cited by

2018Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index 2019Economic Impact of the 2015 MERS Outbreak on the Republic of Korea's Tourism-Related Industries 2020The impact of COVID-19 on tourism sector in India 2019Impact of crisis events on Chinese outbound tourist flow: A framework for post-events growth 2013Cultural tourism as tourist segment for reducing seasonality in a coastal area: the case study of Andalusia 2019Data source combination for tourism demand forecasting

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.