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Interpreting claims in offender profiles: the role of probability phrases, base‐rates and perceived dangerousness
16 references·1 citing·38 second hop
Interpreting claims in offender profiles: the role of probability phrases, base‐rates and perceived dangerousness (2008)Interpreting claims in offender profiles:…A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)A perspective on judgment and…The personality paradox in offender profiling: A theoretical review of the processes involved in deriving background characteristics from crime scene actions. (2002)The personality paradox in of…Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment (2002)Representativeness Revisited:…Communicating quantities: a review of psycholinguistic evidence of how expressions determine perspectives (2000)Communicating quantities: a r…Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence (1995)Processing Linguistic Probabi…Decision making from a cognitive perspective (1995)Decision making from a cognit…Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox (1990)Verbal versus numerical proba…Process and structure in human decision making (1990)Process and structure in huma…Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: Perceived base rate and severity of events. (1990)Contextual effects in the int…Quantitative meanings of verbal probability expressions. (1989)Quantitative meanings of verb…Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both? (1988)Verbal probabilities: Ambiguo…Decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed uncertainties. (1988)Decisions based on numericall…Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms. (1986)Measuring the vague meanings …Base rate effects on the interpretations of probability and frequency expressions (1986)Base rate effects on the inte…Consistency in interpretation of probabilistic phrases (1985)Consistency in interpretation…Recertification: Will We Retreat? (1980)Recertification: Will We Retr…What have we learned from offender profiling? A systematic review and meta-analysis of 40 years of research. (2018)What have we learned from off…Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? (2005)Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2009)Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science (2019)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1999)Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics (2003)Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making (2005)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review (1983)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)Travel Anxiety and Intentions to Travel Internationally: Implications of Travel Risk Perception (2005)Forecasting: theory and practice (2022)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world (2014)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Studying the Accuracy of Managers' Perceptions: A Research Odyssey (2003)What shapes perceptions of climate change? New research since 2010 (2015)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences (2006)Associative and propositional processes in evaluation: An integrative review of implicit and explicit attitude change. (2006)Integrating psychological and neurobiological considerations regarding the development and maintenance of specific Internet-use disorders: An Interaction of Person-Affect-Cognition-Execution (I-PACE) model (2016)Theory and Methods of Scaling (1958)A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures (1977)The Analytic Hierarchy Process (1985)Risk Perception and Communication (1993)A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol (2017)Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference. (1985)Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies (2015)Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations (1997)Numeric, Verbal, and Visual Formats of Conveying Health Risks: Suggested Best Practices and Future Recommendations (2007)Probability Information in Risk Communication: A Review of the Research Literature (2008)
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References

  • 2003A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.5,537 cited
  • 2002Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment3,474 cited
  • 1986Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms.522 cited
  • 1988Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both?334 cited
  • 1985Consistency in interpretation of probabilistic phrases300 cited
  • 1988Decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed uncertainties.252 cited
  • 1990Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox250 cited
  • 1990Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: Perceived base rate and severity of events.229 cited
  • 1986Base rate effects on the interpretations of probability and frequency expressions215 cited
  • 1995Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence203 cited
  • 2002The personality paradox in offender profiling: A theoretical review of the processes involved in deriving background characteristics from crime scene actions.193 cited
  • 1990Process and structure in human decision making187 cited
  • 1989Quantitative meanings of verbal probability expressions.186 cited
  • 2000Communicating quantities: a review of psycholinguistic evidence of how expressions determine perspectives

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184 cited
  • 1980Recertification: Will We Retreat?183 cited
  • 1995Decision making from a cognitive perspective173 cited
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    • 2018What have we learned from offender profiling? A systematic review and meta-analysis of 40 years of research.59 cited