Long-run purchasing power parity revisited: a Monte Carlo simulation

Bwo‐Nung Huang · Chin Wei Yang

35 citations0/0 files storedApplied Economics

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Abstract

The existence of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) implies that a cointegration vector of nominal exchange rate, domestic price, and foreign price is expected regardless of using the Engle-Granger two-step method or Johansen maximum likelihood approach. However, this paper has found conflicting results: the Engle-Granger technique tends to reject the long-run PPP hypothesis whereas the Johansen method is generally supportive of long-run PPP. Via Monte Carlo simulations, the present paper finds that the Johansen approach has a bias toward supporting long-run PPP especially under the circumstances in which the assumption of normally or/and independently and identically distributed disturbance terms is violated.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 1982Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation 1988Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors 1990MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 1991Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models 1976Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics 1992A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics1 1987Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems

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