Age and Scientific Performance

Abstract

The long-standing belief that age is negatively associated with scientific productivity and creativity is shown to be based upon incorrect analysis of data. Analysis of data from a cross-section of academic scientists in six different fields indicates that age has a slight curvilinear relationship with both quality and quantity of scientific output. These results are supported by an analysis of a cohort of mathematicians who received their Ph.D.'s between 1974 and 1950. There was no decline in the quality of work produced by these mathematicians as they progressed through their careers. Both the slight decrease in productivity over the age of 50 are explained by the operation of the scientific reward system. By encouraging those scientists who produce the most favorably received work and discouraging those who produce work that is not favorably received, the reward system works to reduce the number of scientists who are actively publishing. Those who continue to publish throughout their careers are a "residue" composed of the best members of their cohort. Increases in productivity through the thirties and into the forties are shown to be a result of command over the resources necessary to be highly productive. In the last part of the paper I examine the hypothesis that it should be easier for young scientists to make important discoveries in the more highly developed or codified sciences than in the less highly developed ones. The data do not support this hypothesis but, rather, suggest that scientists in all six fields are approximately equally likely to make important discoveries shortly after they receive their Ph.D.'s.

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