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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In Australia, a policy of deferring donors who have lived in the UK for longer than 6 months between 1980 and 1996 has been instituted to reduce the theoretical risk of transmitting variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) through the blood supply. The objective of this report was to refine estimates of the possible risks and benefits of donor-deferral strategies that are aimed at avoiding transmission of vCJD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Estimates of the effect of donor deferral on the blood supply in Australia were based on a 1998 survey of blood donors. The number of donations from donors potentially infected with vCJD and excluded by donor deferral was estimated based on published estimates of the size of the vCJD epidemic in the UK and assuming that the risk of vCJD in Australian blood donors was proportional to the time lived in the UK between 1980 and 1996. The possible increased number of blood donations that were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) or hepatitis B virus (HBV) and made during a window period (as a result of increased donations from first-time donors) was estimated using published methods. RESULTS: A strategy of deferring donations in Australia from people who have lived in the UK for 6 months or longer, between 1980 and 1996, was estimated to result in exclusion of 5.3% of all blood donations, corresponding to 50 100 donations in 1998. It was estimated that the annual number of blood donations made by donors potentially infected with vCJD is 1.15 (range 0.02--31.1, based on the uncertainty in the UK prevalence estimate). Donor deferral was estimated to remove 0.92 (range 0.02--25.1) of these donations. Replacement of 33%, 50% and 100% of excluded donations by donations from first-time donors, was estimated to result in an increase of 0.0010, 0.0019 and 0.0044, respectively, of HIV-infected donations per year donated during the window period; in an increase of 0.021, 0.038 and 0.089, respectively, of HCV-infected donations per year; and in an increase of 0.18, 0.33 and 0.76, respectively, of HBV-infected donations per year. CONCLUSIONS: The large uncertainties involved in these analyses mean that estimates must be interpreted cautiously, but the data does suggest that donor deferral may exclude more donations from donors potentially infected with vCJD than the corresponding increase, caused by donor replacement, of window-period donations possibly infected with HIV, HCV or HBV.
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