Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Support Alliance Team Selection

Abstract

The alliance concept is similar to the design build project delivery system. However, it is denoted by a special form of partnership between the owner and the design-build team, where the owner is very involved in the project. This type of delivery systems is gaining popularity as many infrastructure projects require the owner to order materials ahead of time, before engaging the design-build team in the project. As in design-build, the selection of the engineer-procure-construct team depends not only on the price but also on qualitative factors. This paper lays out the framework that facilitates selecting the best alliance team for a project by quantifying the evaluation factors and combining them into a single score. Using a Monte Carlo simulation and varying all the factors relevant to the decision problem can reveal biases present in the evaluation to assist in making the best possible decision. A case study dealing with a large utility project illustrates this methodology.

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