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Frequency, Probability, and Prediction: Easy Solutions to Cognitive Illusions? · Study

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ArticleFrequency, Probability, and Prediction: Easy Solutions to Cognitive Illusions?

Dale W. Griffin1999

Article1999

Frequency, Probability, and Prediction: Easy Solutions to Cognitive Illusions?

Dale W. Griffin · Roger Buehler

137 citations·0/0 files stored·Cognitive Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Forecasting Techniques and Applications Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

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References

1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1973On the psychology of prediction.1984Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.1982Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases 1982Book Review Nisbett, R. , & Ross, L.Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment.Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1980.1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 1992The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence

Cited by

2014Situation Awareness-Based Agent Transparency 2002Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem 2007The Trouble With Overconfidence 2003Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions

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Details

Year1999

Typearticle

Published1999-02-01

VenueCognitive Psychology

ISSN-L0010-0285

Languageen

Citations137

Files0 public / 0

ShelfDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

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doi10.1006/cogp.1998.0707

openalex_workW2099148141

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2021Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs

2005The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect