Modelling risk from a disease in time and space

Abstract

This paper combines existing models for longitudinal and spatial data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, with particular emphasis on the role of time- and space-varying covariate effects. Data analysis is implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The methodology is illustrated by a tentative re-analysis of Ohio lung cancer data 1968-1988. Two approaches that adjust for unmeasured spatial covariates, particularly tobacco consumption, are described. The first includes random effects in the model to account for unobserved heterogeneity; the second adds a simple urbanization measure as a surrogate for smoking behaviour. The Ohio data set has been of particular interest because of the suggestion that a nuclear facility in the southwest of the state may have caused increased levels of lung cancer there. However, we contend here that the data are inadequate for a proper investigation of this issue.

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