Son preference and the marriage squeeze in China -- an integrated analysis of the first marriage and remarriage market.

Abstract

In China strong son preference and discrimination against girls have resulted in male squeeze in the marriage market. Using projection data and marriage information in 2000 census we devise a series of indexes taking account of both first marriage and remarriage measure the extent of male squeeze in Chinas market from 2001 through 2050 and analyze the impact of son preference and remarriage on marriage squeeze. The results show that the index of potential sex ratio of first marriage partners used by Tuljapurkar et al. (1995) without taking account of the relative numbers of males and females in the baseline year underestimate the male squeeze extent. After adjusting the index there will be server male squeeze from 2000 onwards in China and after 2013 annual proportion of excess males hold above 10% and 15% during 2015 to 2045. Annual excess males are 1.2 million. Still the SRBs of the birth cohorts born after 2000 exert significant influence on the marriage market. To the total marriage market remarriage (to first married spouse) takes up only a small proportion of the total first marriage market but it exerts great impact on the numbers and proportions of excess males. (authors)

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