WAS JAPANESE GROWTH EXPORT-LED?

Andrea Boltho

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Economic Growth and Productivity Global trade and economics Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

In three periods of its modern economic history (1913–37, 1952–73, and 1973–90), Japan grew up to twice as rapidly as did other major industrialized countries. The paper investigates whether growth in these years was export-led. The results of five very different tests suggest that domestic forces rather than foreign demand propelled longer-run growth. This was particularly so in the high-growth period of 1952–73. Exports may, however, have been crucial in initiating several cyclical upswings.

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References

1964The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal 1978Exports and economic growth 1985Exports, growth and causality in developing countries 1985Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence 1992Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?1970Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities Between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries 1991The Scientific Illusion in Empirical Macroeconomics 1989The Growth Effects of 1992

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