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Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy
16 references·16 citing·39 second hopsampled
Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy (2008)Probability, confirmation, and the conjun…Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Heuristics and Biases: The Ps…Frequency illusions and other fallacies (2003)Frequency illusions and other…Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration (2001)Do Frequency Representations …The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity (1999)The Plurality of Bayesian Mea…The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory (1999)The Foundations of Causal Dec…The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors (1999)The ‘conjunction fallacy’ rev…On the reality of cognitive illusions. (1996)On the reality of cognitive i…On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. (1996)On narrow norms and vague heu…The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment. (1995)The social context of reasoni…Category-based induction. (1990)Category-based induction.Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Extensional versus intuitive …Conservatism in human information processing (1982)Conservatism in human informa…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…A Treatise on Probability (1973)A Treatise on ProbabilityComparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and re…Probability and the Weighing of Evidence. (1950)Probability and the Weighing …Bayesianism and Scientific Reasoning (2022)Bayesianism and Scientific Re…Good Guesses (2021)Good GuessesGenerics and typicality: a bounded rationality approach (2019)Generics and typicality: a bo…Escaping Paternalism: Rationality, Behavioral Economics, and Public Policy (2019)Escaping Paternalism: Rationa…Escaping Paternalism (2019)Escaping PaternalismQuantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy (2016)Quantum-like models cannot ac…People’s conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise) (2016)People’s conditional probabil…Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates: The Probability Theory Plus Noise Account (2016)Explaining High Conjunction F…Robustness, Diversity of Evidence, and Probabilistic Independence (2015)Robustness, Diversity of Evid…Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time‐Consistent? (2015)Judging the Probability of Hy…The Psychological Basis of the Harman-Vogel Paradox (2011)The Psychological Basis of th…Source Reliability and the Conjunction Fallacy (2011)Source Reliability and the Co…On the conjunction fallacy and the meaning of and, yet again: A reply to (2011)On the conjunction fallacy an…Broadening the study of inductive reasoning: Confirmation judgments with uncertain evidence (2010)Broadening the study of induc…The degree of epistemic justification and the conjunction fallacy (2009)The degree of epistemic justi…How the conjunction fallacy is tied to probabilistic confirmation: Some remarks on Schupbach (2009) (2009)How the conjunction fallacy i…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1999)Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition (2007)On seeing human: A three-factor theory of anthropomorphism. (2007)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. (1996)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Flawed Self-Assessment (2004)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review (2002)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Features of similarity. (1977)Conceptual Change in Childhood (1985)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Culture and systems of thought: Holistic versus analytic cognition. (2001)Generalization, similarity, and Bayesian inference (2001)Psychological Universals: What Are They and How Can We Know? (2005)Toward a Theory of Motivated Information Management (2004)Preference, Value, Choice, and Welfare (2011)On the people's terms: a republican theory and model of democracy (2013)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)The impact of sleep deprivation on decision making: A review. (2000)Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. (2002)A model of investor sentiment /The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1 (1998)
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References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.3,990 cited
  • 2004Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment3,536 cited
  • 1973A Treatise on Probability2,575 cited
  • 1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
  • 1996On the reality of cognitive illusions.1,466 cited
  • 1996On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky.1,070 cited
  • 1982Conservatism in human information processing1,004 cited
  • 1990Category-based induction.918 cited
  • 1999The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory824 cited
  • 1950Probability and the Weighing of Evidence.753 cited
  • 1999The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors538 cited
  • 1995The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment.477 cited
  • 2001Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration449 cited
  • 1999The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity

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280 cited
  • 2003Frequency illusions and other fallacies266 cited
  • Cited by

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    • 2016Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates: The Probability Theory Plus Noise Account46 cited
    • 2019Escaping Paternalism: Rationality, Behavioral Economics, and Public Policy42 cited
    • 2022Bayesianism and Scientific Reasoning39 cited
    • 2016Quantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy35 cited
    • 2011Source Reliability and the Conjunction Fallacy34 cited
    • 2011On the conjunction fallacy and the meaning of and, yet again: A reply to33 cited
    • 2021Good Guesses33 cited
    • 2019Generics and typicality: a bounded rationality approach33 cited
    • 2015Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time‐Consistent?32 cited
    • 2010Broadening the study of inductive reasoning: Confirmation judgments with uncertain evidence30 cited
    • 2009How the conjunction fallacy is tied to probabilistic confirmation: Some remarks on Schupbach (2009)22 cited
    • 2015Robustness, Diversity of Evidence, and Probabilistic Independence21 cited