Exchange rate uncertainty and employment: an algorithm describing ‘play’

Ansgar Hubertus Belke · Matthias Göcke

48 citations0/0 files storedApplied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Market Dynamics and Volatility Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

Abstract The paper deals with the impacts of exchange rate uncertainty on the relationship between macroeconomic labour market variables. Under uncertainty, areas of weak reactions—so‐called ‘play’ areas—have to be considered at the macrolevel. The width of the play area is a positive function of the degree of uncertainty. When changes go beyond the play‐area suddenly strong reactions (‘spurts’) occur. These non‐linear dynamics are captured in a simplified linearized way. An algorithm describing linear play hysteresis is developed and implemented into a regression framework. As an empirical application, the exchange rate impacts on German employment are analysed considering play effects. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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References

1994Investment Under Uncertainty.1994Investment under Uncertainty 1986The theory and practice of econometrics 1983Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies 1990Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad is Eurosclerosis?1986Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice and the Value of the Firm 1993One Market, One Money: An Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union.1999The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment

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2012EXCHANGE RATE BANDS OF INACTION AND PLAY‐HYSTERESIS IN GERMAN EXPORTS—SECTORAL EVIDENCE FOR SOME OECD DESTINATIONS 2015Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-Dependence 2016Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area, the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence 2003Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries 2012Nonconvex adjustment costs, hysteresis, and the macrodynamics of employment

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