Identifying the Leaders

Abstract

With increasing recognition of the potential and accrued benefits for mobility, health, and the environment, public bikeshare programs are growing in popularity globally. Any city planning to launch a program will be keenly interested in understanding who may use it to enable strategic marketing that will facilitate quick uptake and adoption. The diffusion of innovation theory was applied to data from a population-based telephone survey to characterize who would be most likely to use a new public bikeshare program. A telephone survey of 901 residents of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, was conducted before the launch of Vancouver's public bikeshare program. Results showed that a majority [ n = 614/901, 69.1%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 66.3%, 72.7%] of respondents thought that a public bikeshare program was a good idea; however, only one-quarter ( n = 217/901, 24.2%; 95% CI = 21.1%, 27.3%) said that they would be likely or very likely to use the program. Logistic regression identified characteristics associated with higher and lower likelihood of use, which were used to create an adoption curve that defines population segments anticipated to be the leaders in adopting the program. The theory was used to develop implementation recommendations to maximize program uptake, including ensuring that the program would have tangible advantages over driving and transit, would be affordable and easy to try, would integrate with transit and carshare opportunities, and would appeal to social trends such as environmental responsibility. These results can assist planning and promotion in cities set to launch public bikeshare programs.

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