Deconstructing the BRICS: Bargaining Coalition, Imagined Community, or Geopolitical Fad?

Abstract

Can the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) build on their momentum to transform the international order, or will they be remembered as a geopolitical fad? To assess the prospects of the figurehead for emerging power aspirations, this article examines the associational dynamics and practices that inform their collective journey. Drawing on the rationalist literature on bargaining coalitions and on the constructivist literature on ‘imagined’ communities, we develop an analytical framework to investigate whether states exploit their BRICS affiliation tactically, to rise in tandem, or strategically, to rise together. Two case studies, which examine BRICS efforts to curb Washington’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ and to develop a collective response to the climate crisis suggest that even when the BRICS share soft revisionist goals, coalitional cohesion and community formation are tentative at best. In the absence of clear common objectives, the BRICS abandon all but the rhetoric of coalitional behaviour. We conclude that unless the five emerging powers agree on a coherent strategy to harness their relative strengths, the BRICS’ geopolitical play will be defeated by their own tactical ploys.

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